Jubaland crisis

Jubaland crisis
Part of the Somali Civil War and constitutional crisis in Somalia
Location of Jubaland
Date 11 December 2024 (2024-12-11) – present (7 months, 3 weeks and 1 day) Location Jubaland regions of Gedo, Lower Juba and Middle Juba, Somalia Status Ongoing Territorial changes Jubaland retains control of Ras Kamboni Ahmed Madobe remains in power Significant Jubaland regional forces defections to SNA. An estimated 600 Somali Armed Forces soldiers retreated into Kenya and were hosted at a Kenya Defense Forces military base before being disarmed. Over 250 reportedly Somali Armed Forces soldiers surrender to the Jubaland Dervish Force Unspecified casualties were reported on both sides Jubaland regains control of Doolow, Gedo and Kolbiyoow, Badhadhe District and Lower Juba
Belligerents
Jubaland Supported by: Ethiopia	Somalia Supported by: Turkey
Commanders and leaders
Ahmed Madobe (President of Jubaland) Mohamud Sayid Aden (Vice President of Jubaland) Adan Ahmed Haji (Defense Minister)	Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (President of Somalia) Hamza Abdi Barre (Prime Minister of Somalia) Abdulkadir Mohamed Nur (Defense minister)
Units involved
Jubaland Dervish Force Birjeex Hanqadh Abris Jubaland presidential guard Supported by: Ethiopian National Defense Force	Somali Armed Forces Somali National Army Gor Gor Brigade Gor Gor Brigade Haramacad Brigade Villa Somalia guard unit Koofiyad Cas Supported by: Turkish Air Force

The Jubaland crisis is an ongoing armed conflict in southern Somalia. Stemming from a constitutional dispute between the Somali Federal Government (led by President, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Prime Minister, Hamza Abdi Barre) and the semi-autonomous state of Jubaland, following Ahmed Madobe's re-election to serve for a third term as Jubaland's president.

Background

Provisional Constitution of the Federal Republic of Somalia, adopted in 2012, established a federal system of government consisting of two levels: the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and the semi-autonomous Federal Member States (FMS). Intended to prevent the reemergence of an authoritarian central government, such as that under former President Siad Barre, and to address historical grievances by devolving powers to member states, the provisional constitution provides limited provisions for implementing federalism, forcing the FGS to negotiate with the FMS. Coupled with the ambiguity of the document and disputes over power and resources, has led to competing interpretations of federal governance. Some state governments favor greater autonomy, even asserting control of powers designated for the FGS, while others support a stronger central government. These disagreements have contributed to recurring tensions between the federal and state governments over the past two decades.

Constitutional crisis and Jubaland election

Main articles: Constitutional crisis in Somalia and 2024 Jubaland presidential election

A constitutional crisis emerged in Somalia on 30 March 2024, when the Federal Parliament of Somalia approved a series of constitutional amendments aimed at establishing a more "stable political system". These changes included a return to universal suffrage, replacing the decades old clan-based electoral system, and granting the president authority to appoint the prime minister without requiring parliamentary approval. Critics argued that the reforms significantly expanded executive power. In response, the semi-autonomous state of Puntland announced the following day that it was withdrawing its recognition and confidence in the Federal Government of Somalia. It called for a "mutually accepted Somali constitution that is subject to a public referendum" and declared that, until such a constitution is in place, it would operate independently.

In October, the National Consultative Council (NCC) convened federal and state officials to discuss democratisation and security. During the meeting, the federal government reaffirmed its commitment to advancing electoral reforms. The NCC proposed a one-year extension of the terms of all state presidents until the universal suffrage system could be implemented, which was accepted by the leaders of Hirshabelle, Galmudug, and South West states. The proposal and constitutional amendments were rejected by Judaland President Ahmed Mohamed Islam, known as Ahmed Madobe, who believed they would undermine regional autonomy.

Defying the federal government, Judbaland amended its own constitution to override the two-term limit set by the FGS, extended presidential terms from four to five years, and proceeded with the presidential election on 25 November 2024, in which Madobe won a third term. On 27 November 2024, the Banadir Regional Court in Mogadishu issued an arrest warrant for Madobe, accusing him of treason, violating the constitutional framework, leaking classified information to foreign actors, and undermining national unity.

The following day, the government of Jubaland suspended relations and cooperation with the federal government. Futhermore, a court in Kismayo, the regional capital of Jubaland, announced a $100,000 reward for the arrest of Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, accusing him of treason, undermining national unity, and conspiring with Al-Shabaab militia.

Jubaland actions

Jubaland Accuses FGS of Misusing Aid and Blocking Flights

On 9 January 2025, the Jubaland State Cabinet has accused Somalia’s federal government of using international humanitarian aid meant for Jubaland's people to support armed conflicts in the region.

The Somali federal government had earlier announced the delivery of 700 tons of food aid from the United Arab Emirates. They said Jubaland received 300 tons, and Puntland received 200 tons. However, both Jubaland and Puntland denied receiving the aid.

Jubaland also accused the Somali Civil Aviation Authority of stopping flights to their region for political reasons. Officials said the federal government pressured airlines not to operate in Jubaland cities, making it harder for people to travel.

Additionally, the Jubaland government said that federal authorities have stopped important development projects in the region as punishment for disagreements over ongoing constitution dispute.

Timeline

Approximate map of the current phase of the Somali Civil War (Updated June 2025)

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Somalia:

  Under control of the Federal Government of Somalia, the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia, and the United States

  Under Control of Puntland

  Under Control of Jubaland

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Jihadist insurgent groups:

  Under presence/control of al-Qaeda-backed al-Shabaab and allies

  Under control of Islamic State-backed Somalia Wilayah

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Somaliland:

  Under control of the self-declared state of Somaliland

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(For a more detailed map of the current military situation, see here.)

2024

• 4 November – the delegation of mediators from Kenya was led by the former IGAD Executive Secretary, Mahboub Maalim, the former IGAD Special Representative for Somalia, Mohamed Abdi Affey, and the former senator for Wajir County, Abdirahman Ali Hassan arrived in Kismayo to meet president Ahmed Madobe, after President of Somalia, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, requested from the Kenyan government to work towards finding a solution to the tension between Jubaland and Federal Government of Somalia.
• On 18 November, Somali Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre said Ahmed Madobe could not run for office again because his term had ended. Abdifatah Mohamed Mukhtar, the Jubaland Minister of Information, disagreed. He told BBC Somali, "The Prime Minister should remember that he once said Jubaland had its own independent elections. Now he is saying those elections are not valid."
• On 19 November, Mursal Siad Mohamed, the chairman of the Jubaland Electoral Commission, chaired a meeting with the traditional elders of Jubaland's tribes as they submitted the list of new members for the Third Jubaland House of Representatives. The commission also announced the new Members of Parliament and confirmed that the election for the Speaker of the Jubaland Parliament is scheduled to take place on 21 November. The Supreme Court of Jubaland takes an oath in the 75 newly Representatives MP's approved by the Traditional Leaders.
• On 21 November, Abdi Mohamed Abdirahman was re-elected as Speaker for a third term and secured 65 votes. His opponent, Ismail Abdi Keerow, got 7 votes. Hirad Ismail Mohamed was elected as the First Deputy Speaker with 56 votes, while Mahad Mohamed Ahmed received 18 votes. Abdi Baley Hussein became the Second Deputy Speaker after getting 51 votes. His opponent, Abdirashid Ali Mohamud received 22 votes.
• On 23 November at least one security officer was killed and two others were injured in a gunfight between Jubaland police and security guards in Kismayo. After rival candidates backed by the federal government announced a parallel election amid a disagreement on the electoral procedure for the presidential election.
• Jubaland authorities said they concerned about interference from Somalia's Federal Government during its elections were highlighted by the Ministry of Interior on 23 November. It accuses the Office of the Prime Minister of misusing UN and ATMIS resources for political purposes that were undermining neutrality and stability. Jubaland describes these actions as unconstitutional and calls on international partners to respect Somalia's federal system and support fair and peaceful governance.
• 23 December:
  • Violent clashes occur between the Ethiopia-backed Jubaland forces and the Somali Armed Forces in Dolow, Gedo Region, Somalia, with Jubaland forces later taking control of the town.
  • The mayor of Badhadhe District, Lower Juba, Hassan Nuur Cabdi, survives an ambush attack which killed at least five of his security personnel.
• 24 December – The federal government of Somalia imposes a flight ban on Jubaland, including all flights to and from Jubaland, particularly affecting the cities of Kismayo and Doolow. The flight ban was initiated amid ongoing political tensions and military engagements after Jubaland forces reportedly defeated Somali Armed Forces in several locations, including Ras Kamboni, Kulbiyow, and Dolow.

2025

• 4 February – Jubaland forces have regained control of Bardhere District in the Gedo region after withdrawal of federal forces was reportedly linked to the disbandment of units stationed at headquarters for several months.
• 5 February – Somali federal government-appointed commissioner of Bardhere District Mohamed Ilyas Caagane is killed after Somali National Army forces are defeated by Jubaland forces in Gedo.
• 22 July – At least ten people are killed in Beled Hawo as Jubaland forces and the Somali National Army from the Federal Government engaged in heavy fighting. Jubaland forces claimed to have taken over the district headquarters and the entire city, while the FGS claimed that its troops had successfully repelled the attack. The deaths were caused by heavy fighting with the Somali National Army from the Federal Government of Somalia.

External links

• Galka Baarista: Muxuu salka ku hayaa khilaafka DFS iyo Jubaland? – VOA Somalia